Performance Review & Misc. [SPX, 20th of May 23]
weekend SPX associated precog stuff
Precog methods applied, label definitions are explained within the weekday posts.
Recent SPX precog intraday forecasts
Latest week SPX bar chart:
Next-Session forecasts
By now there have been
492 forecasts with ITK (Implied via Telekinesis), by way of physical dice and Remote Influence. Actually, I think it is also considered dowsing by some.
454 forecasts with Divination, by way of Thoth Tarot deck.
211 forecasts with Generalized Psi Expectation (S*), by way of 1million random number generator iterations with Remote Influence.
Total number of half-day forecasts performed since inception: 583
249 Composite Forecasts by simple average, C^
215 Composite Forecasts by majority vote, C[M]
Implied Expected Values
*Since the aim of the forecasts is to produce +EV (Positive Expected Value) biases, I would NOT expect the average win rate to deviate far from 50%. You shouldn’t either, if your goal is to make money from trades.
Hedge Fund benchmark IEVs from HFR, for the same period
Precog next-day Open-to-Close forecast IEVs
Precog half-day forecast IEVs
Probabilities of forecast performance due to chance
We can use the z-score to estimate the probability that the hypothetical trading performance had occurred by chance. We usually use Z-Score tables, but they only go up to about +/- 3. So in cases of bigger Z-scores, we have to use a Z-Score calculator:
All of the above is explained in more detail at www.fourmilab.ch
I didn’t bother with the PM forecasts.