*This is an ongoing experiment out of personal interest. None of this Substack is meant to be construed as financial advise.
The aim of the precog forecasts is to produce +EV (Positive Expected Value) biases, which often results in BELOW 50% win-rate trades. Win-rate alone means nothing in asymmetric payoff games. This indirectly explains why trading is so difficult for newbies, having to take on low-success-probability bets in order to be profitable in the long run.
Following forecasts are meant for the S&P 500 index. They are also applicable for the CME Emini-S&P500 index futures, since the index arb guys keep them very tight.
Definitions:
Morning: index change from 9:30AM to noon EST
Afternoon: index change from noon to 16:00 EST
Forecasts will range between [-10, +10], with -10 being the most bearish, and +10 the most bullish.
ITK’= Implied from Telekinesis with Remote Influence, applied with dice.
Div= Divination, applied with Tarot. These are weighted averages of 2 iterations, with more weight given to the later iteration.
S*= generalized psi forecast, applied with random number generators. I have created a column S*’, where the numbers are normalized to span the range [-10, 10], to be applied for the composite average (C*).
Mood indicator is a value between 1 and 10 with 1 being the crappiest mood possible, and 10 pure elation. Having a low value here does not necessarily mean fading the estimates would generate positive EV, but rather expect the accuracy to approach randomness.
Composite forecast by way of simple average (C^) column is the average of ITK, Div, and S* (Normalized) daily-sum forecasts.
*Reviewing the ITK iteration stats of the past month, I’ve decided to do a simple average of the 3 iterations from now on instead of giving more weight to the latter throws, with expectation for improved performance.
Composite forecast by way of majority vote (C[M]), where it reviews ITK, Div, and S* forecasts as simple bearish (-1), bullish (+1), or neutral (0) votes, and take the sum each day.
Composite forecasts for the following week. These are composite forecasts done with the same 3 methods estimating if prices a week out from time of the previous closing price will be above or below previous closing price.
Latest SPX Index Related Precog Forecasts
last session bar chart:
General performance stats
Rational analysis from me will be updated at Unconventional Trades later today.